The Great Migration

How Substack became the new town square
as X descended into a propaganda machine

5M+ Paid Substack Subscribers ↗ 45,000% growth since 2018
VS
91% Decline in X Brand Value ↙ $5.7B → $498M since 2022

In October 2022, Elon Musk completed his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter. What followed was one of the most dramatic corporate implosions in media history — a systematic dismantling of content moderation, a mass exodus of advertisers, journalists, and public figures, and a precipitous collapse in both revenue and trust. Into the void stepped Substack: an independent platform where writers own their audiences, readers pay directly for quality, and the algorithm serves subscribers, not engagement-bait. This is a data-driven account of that divergence.

User Growth:
One Up, One Down

As X shed users and cultural credibility, Substack compounded growth quarter after quarter — building a paid audience that rivals major print outlets.

SUBSTACK

Paid Subscribers Growth

11K → 5M+ (2018–2025)

Source: Backlinko, Sacra
X / TWITTER

US Adult Usage Rate

Stagnant then collapsing post-acquisition

COMPETITOR GROWTH

The Alternatives Rising: Threads & Bluesky MAU

Millions of Monthly Active Users as users seek alternatives to X

Revenue & Valuation:
The Great Divergence

X revenue has collapsed 51% from its 2021 peak. Substack has grown its ARR nearly 20x in five years. The market is rendering its verdict.

X / TWITTER

Total Annual Revenue

51% decline from $5.08B peak (2021)

Source: Fortune, Reuters
SUBSTACK

Annual Recurring Revenue

From $2.4M to $45M ARR (2020–2025)

Source: Sacra, TechCrunch
X / TWITTER

Brand Value Collapse

91% decline — $5.7B → $498M

SUBSTACK

Valuation Trajectory

Unicorn status achieved at $1.1B (2025)

Source: WSJ, Sacra
-51% X revenue since 2021 peak
+1,775% Substack ARR growth since 2020
4% of marketers consider X ads "brand-safe"

Content Quality & Trust:
By the Numbers

Academic research and advertiser behavior tell a damning story: X has become a platform where hate speech is up, high-quality information is down, and the people tasked with policing both have been fired.

+50%
Increase in hate speech after acquisition
UC Berkeley, PLOS ONE
-27.84%
Decline in sharing of high-credibility content
Harvard Misinformation Review
62,000+
Previously banned accounts reinstated
Reuters / Press Gazette
-80%
Safety engineers cut post-acquisition
Press Gazette / Reuters
-52%
Content moderators eliminated
Press Gazette
🚫
4%
Marketers who consider X ads "brand-safe"
Reuters Institute
87%
Revenue share kept by Substack writers
Substack
💡
Subs
Algorithm optimized for subscriptions, not engagement bait
Substack Policy

X Platform Degradation: A Visual Audit

Sources: UC Berkeley PLOS ONE, Harvard Misinformation Review, Reuters Institute, Press Gazette

The Advertiser Exodus:
Follow the Money

Nearly 300 brands have slashed advertising on X. The top 10 advertisers cut spending by 70–99%. The result: $5.9 billion in estimated lost revenue versus X's pre-acquisition trajectory.

X / TWITTER

Brand Spending Collapse: 2022 vs 2025

Top advertiser spending on X — dramatic year-over-year collapse

X / TWITTER

Rolling 12-Month Ad Revenue (MediaRadar)

Consecutive annual declines in advertising revenue

Source: MediaRadar
86% of top advertisers cut spending
$5.9B estimated lost ad revenue vs trajectory
0.2% X's share of global digital ad spend

Major Brands That Pulled Spending

Apple
$20.4M → $0.5M
-98% spending reduction
Disney
$27.7M → $0.5M
-98% spending reduction
AT&T
$33.4M → $0.1M
-99% spending reduction
IBM
Was 5th-largest advertiser
Pulled all ads over hate speech concerns
Coca-Cola
-96% spending
Near-total withdrawal from platform
Nike
-70%+ spending
Significant pullback from X advertising
Comcast
$22.5M → $1.7M
-92% spending reduction
Microsoft
$11M → $0.4M
-96% spending reduction
Unilever
Sued by X, settled
Pulled ads; X filed suit, later settled
Sources: MediaRadar · Sensor Tower · Kantar

App & Traffic Trends:
The Momentum Shift

Threads has overtaken X in daily mobile users. Substack's app has become its #1 growth engine. The data shows where digital attention is moving.

MOBILE DAU RACE

X vs Threads: Mobile Daily Active Users

The crossover moment — Threads surpasses X in daily mobile users by Jan 2026

Substack App: Engagement Flywheel

💬
15x
More likely to comment (app vs non-app users)
Substack
🔁
44x
More likely to share posts
Substack
💰
3M
Subscriptions driven by app per month
Substack
📈
139%
YoY web traffic growth (2024)
Substack

X: The Traffic Erosion

-15.2%
Mobile DAU year-over-year (June 2025)
SimilarWeb via TechCrunch
-30%
US population usage decline (27% → 19%)
Pew Research
🚫
50%
Less US daily active users vs one year ago
TechCrunch
8 min
Average daily time on Threads vs 31 min on X
App analytics
141.5M Threads mobile DAU (Jan 2026)
125M X mobile DAU (Jan 2026)
400M Threads monthly active users

The Exodus:
Who Left & Where They Went

The migration is not just demographic — it is institutional. News organizations, journalists, politicians, and cultural figures have all abandoned X, many moving their audiences to Substack.

Media Organizations
Leaving X

Apr 2023
NPR
Left after being labeled "state-affiliated media" by the platform
Apr 2023
PBS
Suspended accounts in solidarity with NPR
Nov 2024
The Guardian
"Toxic media environment" cited by editor Katharine Viner
Jan 2025
Le Monde
French daily exits citing platform's editorial direction

Journalists
Moving to Substack

Oct 2024
Taylor Lorenz
Tech journalist, Washington Post → independent Substack
2024
Mehdi Hasan
MSNBC anchor launches "Zeteo" on Substack
Jan 2025
Jim Acosta
CNN anchor moves to Substack after departure
Jan 2025
Joy Reid
MSNBC host launches independent Substack newsletter
Jan 2025
Jennifer Rubin
Washington Post columnist moves to Substack
2025
Paul Krugman
Nobel laureate economist launches Substack

Politicians & Celebrities
Building Audiences

Pete Buttigieg
394K+ subscribers on Substack
Chris Murphy
US Senator, building direct audience
Jasmine Crockett
Congressmember on Substack
Celebrities leaving X
Stephen King
Author, departed citing platform culture
Barbra Streisand
Moved to other platforms
Jamie Lee Curtis
Actor, left citing toxic environment
Don Lemon
Former CNN anchor departed
Elton John
Musician left citing hate speech increase

In Their Own Words

The exodus is being narrated in real time. These are some of the voices defining the moment.

Head to Head:
The Full Ledger

A structured comparison across every meaningful dimension — business model, creator economics, content quality, and trajectory.

Metric SUBSTACK X (TWITTER)
Primary Revenue Subscriptions Advertising
Creator Revenue Share 87% Variable / Limited
Content Ownership Creator owns list Platform controls distribution
Algorithm Goal Maximize subscriptions Maximize time-on-platform
Paid Subscribers 5M+ (2025) N/A (ad model)
2025 Revenue $45M ARR ↗ ~$2.5B ↙ (declining)
Valuation Trend Rising — $1.1B unicorn Falling — 91% brand value loss
Hate Speech No systemic increase +50% post-acquisition
Trust & Safety Community standards maintained 80% of safety engineers cut
Brand Safety (Ads) Subscription model — no ad risk Only 4% of marketers approve
Notable Recent Additions Buttigieg, Acosta, Krugman, Hasan
Notable Recent Departures Guardian, NPR, Stephen King, Elton John